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ESF Writer

The 2024 Presidential Election's impact on Real Estate




The housing policies of the 2024 presidential candidates reflect their broader economic and social priorities. Here’s a summary of the key positions from the two leading candidates:

Kamala Harris (Democratic Party)

President Joe Biden’s administration which is expected to be similar to a Harris administration has emphasized affordable housing and increased supply. Key initiatives include:

  • Housing Supply Action Plan: Aims to close the housing supply gap by increasing the availability of affordable housing.

  • Grants and Tax Credits: Proposes $5.5 billion in grants for affordable housing construction and a $37 billion expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit.

  • Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit: Seeks to create a $19 billion credit to encourage investment in underserved areas.

  • Down Payment Assistance: Advocates for mortgage relief credits and down payment assistance, especially for first-generation homebuyers​ (AllSides)​​ (Ballotpedia)​.

Donald Trump (Republican Party)

Former President Donald Trump’s approach focuses on deregulation and market-driven solutions:

  • Deregulation: Signed executive orders to reduce regulatory barriers to housing development, such as restrictive local zoning laws.

  • Opportunity Zones: Created to attract investment in underdeveloped neighborhoods through tax incentives.

  • Budget Cuts: Reduced the budget for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) during his tenure, which impacted affordable housing programs

Let's take a look at how a Kamala Harris Presidential Victory Could Affect the Real Estate Investor Market**


As the 2024 presidential election approaches, potential shifts in policy under different candidates are a hot topic for many sectors, including real estate. If Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, her housing policies could significantly impact the real estate investor market. Here’s a look at how her administration’s likely priorities might shape the landscape for real estate investors.


Emphasis on Affordable Housing


Kamala Harris is expected to align closely with President Biden’s housing policies, which emphasize affordable housing and increasing supply. Investors in affordable housing projects might find more opportunities through increased federal support. Harris would likely continue or expand initiatives such as:


Housing Supply Action Plan: This aims to close the housing supply gap by increasing the availability of affordable housing units. For investors, this could mean more development projects becoming viable through federal incentives and support.


Grants and Tax Credits: The Biden administration has proposed significant expansions in grants and tax credits for affordable housing construction. Harris could further this trend, providing more financial incentives for developers and investors focusing on affordable housing.


Regulatory Changes: A Harris administration might introduce regulatory changes designed to reduce barriers to housing development. These could include:

  • Revisiting Zoning Laws: Harris could support efforts to relax restrictive zoning laws, making it easier for investors to develop properties in areas previously limited by such regulations.

  • Encouraging Mixed-Use Developments: By promoting mixed-use developments that combine residential, commercial, and retail spaces, Harris could open new avenues for investors to diversify their portfolios within single projects.


Increased Investment in Underserved Areas

Like Biden, Harris might emphasize investing in underserved areas, potentially revitalizing neighborhoods and making them attractive to investors. Initiatives could include:

  • Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit: This seeks to encourage investment in underserved areas through significant tax credits. Real estate investors might benefit from financial incentives to develop and improve properties in these locations.

  • Opportunity Zones: Building on the Opportunity Zones created during the Trump administration, Harris might expand or modify these to further attract investment in economically distressed areas.

  • Green Building Incentives: Investors in sustainable and energy-efficient buildings might see increased incentives, such as tax credits and grants, for incorporating green technologies into their projects.

  • Retrofit Programs: Programs aimed at retrofitting existing buildings to improve energy efficiency could provide opportunities for investors specializing in renovations and upgrades.


Implications for Mortgage and Lending Markets

Harris could also influence the mortgage and lending markets, affecting real estate financing:

Down Payment Assistance: Expanding down payment assistance programs, especially for first-generation homebuyers, could increase the pool of potential homebuyers, boosting demand for residential properties.

Mortgage Relief Credits: Initiatives aimed at providing mortgage relief could stabilize the housing market, benefiting both buyers and investors by reducing default rates and foreclosures.


A Kamala Harris presidential victory could bring a range of changes to the real estate investor market, from increased support for affordable housing and investment in underserved areas to regulatory changes and a focus on sustainability. These policies could create new opportunities for investors willing to adapt to a potentially more regulated but supportive environment for housing development and investment.


Now let's look at how a Trump Victory on Election Night Might Affect the Real Estate Market


As the 2024 presidential election approaches, speculation abounds about how a potential victory for former President Donald Trump could impact various sectors of the economy, including the real estate market. Trump’s policies and priorities during his first term in office provide some insights into what a second term might entail for real estate. Here’s a look at how his victory might affect the market going forward.


Continued Deregulation


One of Trump’s hallmarks has been his focus on deregulation, which he views as a way to stimulate economic growth. For the real estate market, continued deregulation could mean:

Ease of Development: By reducing regulatory barriers, such as restrictive zoning laws and lengthy approval processes, real estate developers might find it easier and quicker to initiate and complete projects. This could increase the supply of new properties, particularly in areas that have been historically difficult to develop.

Cost Reductions: Fewer regulations can also mean lower compliance costs for developers, potentially leading to reduced construction costs and lower prices for buyers and investors


Expansion of Opportunity Zones

Trump’s administration established Opportunity Zones to encourage investment in economically distressed areas through tax incentives. A second term might see:

Expansion and Refinement: Trump could expand the number of Opportunity Zones and refine the program to attract even more investment. This could revitalize struggling neighborhoods and create new opportunities for real estate investors looking for tax-advantaged investments.

Increased Investment: Enhanced incentives could drive more capital into these zones, leading to significant development and appreciation in property values in these areas.


Impact on Housing Affordability

While deregulation and Opportunity Zones might benefit developers and investors, there could be mixed impacts on housing affordability:

Supply vs. Demand: Increased development might help address housing shortages in some areas, potentially stabilizing or reducing prices. However, if the focus remains on luxury or market-rate housing, affordability for lower-income households might not see significant improvements.

Public Housing and Assistance Programs: Trump’s previous budget cuts to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) suggest that further reductions could be on the horizon, potentially impacting programs aimed at supporting affordable housing and low-income renters.


Economic Policies and Real Estate

Trump’s broader economic policies could also influence the real estate market:

Tax Cuts: Continuation of tax cuts, particularly those benefiting high-income individuals and businesses, could increase disposable income and investment capital, potentially boosting demand for high-end real estate.

Trade Policies: Trump’s stance on trade and tariffs could impact the cost of construction materials, influencing the overall cost of new developments. Fluctuations in material costs could affect profitability for developers and pricing for consumers.


Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics

A Trump victory could have varying effects on investor sentiment:

Market Confidence: Investors who favor Trump’s pro-business stance might feel more confident, leading to increased investment activity in the real estate market.

Uncertainty and Volatility: However, Trump’s often unpredictable policy decisions and international relations could introduce a degree of uncertainty and volatility, impacting long-term planning and investment strategies for real estate investors.




A Donald Trump victory on election night could bring a mix of opportunities and challenges for the real estate market. Continued deregulation, expansion of Opportunity Zones, and pro-business tax policies could stimulate development and investment. However, potential budget cuts to affordable housing programs and economic volatility could present hurdles. As always, real estate investors should stay informed about policy changes and be prepared to adapt their strategies to navigate the evolving market landscape.


By keeping a close eye on political developments and understanding their potential impacts, real estate investors can better position themselves to capitalize on opportunities and mitigate risks in a post-election market.


As always, real estate investors should stay informed about policy developments and be prepared to adjust their strategies accordingly. The 2024 election promises to be a pivotal moment for the housing market, with significant implications for investors across the spectrum.


Sources:

- [AllSides](https://www.allsides.com)

- [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org)

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